UGANDA'S PLANNING EFFORTS WILL REMAIN HOT AIR UNTIL THERE IS A FUNDAMENTAL CHANGE IN TOP LEADERSHIP

 

Development Plans like the Vision 2040 to be launched by President Museveni today will remain hot air until the NRM re-discovers its self and what is supposed to be its mission for the country.  It looks like the top leadership of NRM just takes Ugandans for granted, they imagine we don't know what is good for use, and that we can not make rational decisions, ans instead should remain a subject of misguided decisions currently being made.  Talk is made about corruption, though the singing is made regularly, NRM's current leadership is least ready to see the vice become history.  It is no secret that budgeting though an expensive process is much of a ritual.  It has remain a real issue establishing where the NRM gets money that is dished around.  The money spent in foreign missions that are part of President Museveni's agenda.  President Museveni's unwillingness to listen to wise counsel and instead he keeps sinking the country through among other strategies, the useless administrative expenditures to RDCs, the useless Presidential advisors, to mention but a few.  As long as the country fails to get sense of wishing to retain well trained manpower and instead a country like Rwanda takes manpower from Uganda is unfortunate.

NRM has one solution: That is to see an end of President Museveni's tenure in State House.  Short of that, even if 1000 and one good plans are made, sorry, they will go to waste!

William Kituuka Kiwanuka

Inside Uganda's new growth plan

IN SUMMARY

• New plan says Ugandans will hit middle-income status by 2017 but critics say it is unrealistic.
• country’s economic performance since independence has been characterised by relatively slow growth
• The implementation of the Vision 2040 plan, according to the draft report will require a policy shift to a quasi-market approach, a mix of government investments and private sector-driven actions.

Government has outlined the country’s strategic direction in a document criticised by MPs as setting overly ambitious growth targets and improved living conditions to be achieved by 2040.

Themed “Accelerating Uganda’s development to greater prosperity,”  Vision 2040 projects that Uganda will, by then, be transformed from a peasantry economy to a modern and prosperous country.

A draft copy of the vision produced by the National Planning Authority,(NPA), a body mandated to coordinate, manage and evaluate frameworks, systems and strategies for cost-effective and participatory national development planning, envisages that the country will graduate into a middle class nation in the next five years.

Per capita income (how much money is earned by each citizen annually) is expected to stand at about $9,500 (approximately Shs23.3 million) by 2040 from the current $506 (about Shs12.4 million).

Some legislators, however, called the report “cosmetic” and queried the method used to arrive at the projected growth indicators.

Going by the vision attributes of independence and sovereignity, democracy and the rule of law, stability and peace, Ugandans would enjoy high standards of living and a much higher life expectancy pushed from 51.5 years today to 85 years.

Defending Vision 2040, which is expected for launch as Uganda marks 50 years of Independence in October, the junior minister for finance, Mr Matia Kasaija, told the joint Parliamentary committees on Budget and National Economy last week, the political leadership is committed to achieving this vision.

He said during the vision period, average real GDP growth rate will be over 8.2 per cent per annum translating into a total GDP of about $580.5 billion for a projected population of 61.3 million people. He said this will match the current level of development in other middle income countries like Malaysia, Mauritius, Hungary and Chile.

“The aim of the national vision is to transform Uganda from a predominantly peasant and low income country to a competitive upper middle income country with per capita income of about $9,500,” said the NPA chairperson, Dr Kisamba Mugerwa.

The implementation of the plan, according to the draft report will require a policy shift to a quasi-market approach, a mix of government investments and private sector-driven actions.

The government would lay emphasis on harnessing opportunities in the oil and gas sector through the construction of a refinery and supporting the infrastructure, industrialisation, developing the tourism sector and commercialising agriculture, exploiting more minerals, ICT business ,utilising the abundant youthful labour force, among others.

Uganda’s current labour force in Uganda stands at 13 million according to the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, but with spiralling unemployment rates among young Ugandans. Majority of the unemployed are youths and graduates.

Uganda has commercially viable oil and gas deposits in the Albertine Graben. As of 2009, only 40 per cent of the Graben had been explored and a total of about 2.5billion barrels of oil equivalent discovered.

“More commercially viable oil and gas deposits are expected to be discovered as explorations are being carried out in the Graben and other potential areas,” reads the report.

The country’s economic performance since independence has been characterised by relatively slow growth compared to some countries that were at the same level of development like South Korea and Malaysia.

Uganda’s GDP

Uganda’s GDP per capita increased from $63.8 in 1962 to $506 in 2010 compared to Korea’s which increased from $103 to $21,000 in the same period.

In the report, NPA projects the percentage of population below the poverty line to reduce to 5 percent by 2040 from the current 24.5 while the infant mortality rate per 100 live births would be reduced from the current 63 to at least 4 by 2040.

It is also assumed in the plan that the implementation of the national population policy and other proposed changes in the education, energy and health sectors will result into a gradual slow down in the population growth rate from the current 3.2 per cent per annum to 2.4 per cent per annum by 2040. At that rate, Ugandans would be about 61.3 million by 2040.

“To improve the quality of the population over the vision period, Uganda will focus on creating a more sustainable age structure by reducing the high fertility rate through improving acess to quality reproductive health services and keeping all children of school going age in school,” reads the report.

Uganda has one of the youngest populations in the world and government hopes to tap into it for labour. “In the industrial sector, priority will be on facilitating the entry of new firms in industries and new comparative advantage developed in strategic areas such as petro-chemical industries as offshoots from the oil refining industries.

Agriculture will also be supported to grow above the current level as so as to sustain poverty reduction and endure food security.

The literacy rate is projected to improve from the current reported 73 percent to 95 per cent over the long term. Trade development will focus on sustaining competitiveness of domestic products in external and local markets.

Higher investment is anticipated in urbanisation which, it is hoped, will spur industry. On Thursday, MPs also called for a special and independent planning ministry to oversee the planning sector to implement Vision by 2040. The legislators noted that government has ignored the National Planning Authority (NPA) and underfunded the body. Currently the Authority is a department under the Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development.

“The report is cosmetic and some indicators are an exaggeration because they cannot be achieved,” said Dokolo County MP, Mr Okot Ogong.

He queried why Parliament was not consulted and demanded that it be given a chance to contribute.

Other legislators doubted whether it was achievable within the given time.

Hatwib Katoto, the Katerera County representative, wondered whether the plan would be achievable given the fact that some plans collapsed before they were implemented.

In 1999, government developed a long term plan called Vision 2025 which was not operationalised due to lack of a well - defined implementation framework. Mr Kasaija, said it failed because of lack of a defined implementation framework.

mnalugo@ug.nationmedia.com

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Uganda’s future vision

As Uganda sets out on a journey to attain middle income status, a quick look at the road-map reveals a daunting task ahead.

An extract in from draft Vision 2040 document compares Uganda and five other countries; South Africa, Malaysia, Mauritius, Korea Republic and Botswana which were at the same Gross Domestic Product per capita levels ($1,000) at the time of independence.

Today, Uganda has been left miles behind by these countries. Korea Republic’s GDP lies at between $20,000-21,000, Mauritius, Malaysia and Botswana are all enjoying a GDP per capita of between $7,000 and $9,000. Uganda is still stuck at $506 (Shs1.2 million).

Uganda’s slow economic growth has been attributed to unstable political conditions and economic mismanagement that rocked the country in the 1970’s that led to the fall of GDP by 25 per cent.

In 1999, Uganda in a national consultative process produced Vision 2025. The programme listed the country’s aspirations and objectives. The theme for Vision 2025 is “Prosperous People, harmonious nation and beautiful country”.

By Abdu Kiyaga

Ugandans to earn Shs 25m a year by 2040

Finance Minister Maria Kiwanuka

Government to borrow to fund the plan

Imagine a time when Kampala has high-speed trains, where the country has nuclear power plants, and where on average, each Ugandan earns Shs 25m per year. It might seem a distant dream, but it could happen within less than 30 years, if Uganda Vision 2040, which is to be launched tomorrow, becomes a reality. Indeed, Dr Abel Rwendeire, the deputy chairman of the National Planning Authority, insists this dream is more than achievable.

“What we are talking about is narrowing the gap between those who have and those who don’t. We are trying to look at the constraints that impede the bottom people. We want to assist them so programmes and strategies must be in place,” Rwendeire said this week.

He says that average GDP growth rate will stand at 8.2 per cent per annum translating into a total GDP of $580.5bn. The government wants 80 per cent of Uganda’s population to have access to electricity. Currently only 11 per cent of Uganda is on the power grid. The government also expects that by 2040, at least 80 per cent of the roads will be paved.

Today only four per cent of the road network is paved. All Ugandans, rural or urban, must live in planned settlements according to the plan, drawn by the National Planning Authority. The 120-page plan joins several economic policies and programmes drawn by government over the years, without achieving particularly spectacular success. These include the Structural Adjustment Programmes, Economic Recovery Programme, Poverty Eradication Action Plan, the National Development Plan and Vision 2025.

“We didn’t have the legal framework for the implementation of Vision 2025,” Rwendeire said. “National Planning Authority was not there at the time… Vision 2025 did not talk about the oil and utilisation of oil revenue. It was deemed necessary that we review it. We upheld some of the programmes that were still relevant and we added the element of utilisation of the new resource like the potential with uranium.”

TOURISM

By 2040 tourism will be bringing in some $12bn, up from $622m from tourists who come into the country for gorilla tracking, mountain climbing, and bird watching. There are plans to set up Uganda Tourism Authority, market Uganda better, and improve transport networks by increasing international airports from one to four, developing multilane paved roads, and building a standard railway network with high-speed trains, linking Uganda to Mombasa, Dar es Salaam, Djibouti and Tanga ports.

AGRICULTURE

The government is also looking at agriculture as a key driver of the economy to transform Uganda. Agriculture employs 65 per cent of Uganda’s population, contributing 21 per cent of Uganda’s GDP. The sector is also responsible for 47 per cent of the total export earnings.

Here, plans revolve around commercialising Uganda’s overly subsistence farming, investing in irrigation schemes, supporting research in improved varieties and availability of fertilisers. Other strategies are availing information to farmers, reversing land fragmentation, investing in value addition by availing credit to investors who want to process farm produce.

OIL

The oil and gas sector, with reserves estimated at 3.5 billion barrels, is expected to be one of the main resources to spur economic growth and achieve vision 2040. The reports highlights plans to build an oil refinery and a pipeline and training Ugandan scientists, engineers and technicians to work in the sector.

HUMAN RESOURCE

To improve the labour force, government plans to equip young people with globally competitive skills, knowledge and positive attitudes. These will emerge from yet-to-be built centres of excellence in health, education and science.  Companies like Shell and Exxon-Mobil will be encouraged to set up research and development centres in universities to carry out research.

Skills development programmes will be a major emphasis in tertiary institutions to develop a skilled labour force. The well-qualified graduates will work in the manufacturing and service sectors, creating a potential market for Uganda’s locally produced goods. Uganda will develop a universal health insurance system through a public-private partnership, with international and national referral hospitals.

MULTI-CITY COUNTRY

It is hoped that by 2040, greater Kampala will be one of the most attractive cities in the world offering Ugandans and visitors with rapid bus transport, and light passenger rail system.  There will be four other regional cities in Gulu, Arua, Mbale and Mbarara.

Hoima will be an oil city, Nakasongola an industrial city, Fort Portal a tourism city, Moroto for mining and Jinja for industries – as it used to be in the immediate post-colonial period.
Financing for the vision will come from the government, civil society organisation, donor and private capital loans, and taxes.

Source: Observer